February 1st, 2009
January 2009 Markets Review
Economic & Market Uncertainties;
New U.S. Government Starts Awkwardly
Key Points
- January 2009 Total Returns
S&P 500 (826) -8%
U.S. 10 Yr. Bond (2.86%) -13%
NASDAQ (1476) -6%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -14%
- U.S. GDP expected contraction -1.2%
- 2009 expected earnings decline -6.0%
- Large Jan. 2009 losses;
First Half 2009 recovery uncertain
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January 5th, 2009
2008 Financial Markets Review
Analyzing Awful Investment Results
Yet First Half 2009 Potential Improvement
Key Points
- 2008 Total Returns
S&P 500 (903) -37%
US 10 Yr Bond (2.22%) +28%
NASDAQ (1577) -40%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -43%
- U.S. GDP expected contraction -0.4%
- 2008 earnings expected decline -15%
- Huge 2008 investment losses; however,
First Half 2009 partial recovery expected
Executive Overview
Nearly all asset classes suffered extraordinary
2008 losses. Leveraging (debt financing) of all
assets decreased along with a dramatic decrease
in risk taking. Equity markets illustrated by …
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November 30th, 2008
November 2008 Markets Review
It’s Darkest before the Dawn
How Close Are We to Dawn?
Key Points
- Year To Date 2008 Total Returns
S&P 500 (896) -38%
US 10 Yr Bond (2.93%) +13%
NASDAQ (1535) -42%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -47%
- 2008 US GDP expected growth -0.3%
- 2008 expected earnings decline -12%
- Very negative 2008 portfolio returns
Executive Overview
Equity markets continued to crater until Nov. 20.
The 11 week decline was unprecedented since
the Panic of 1893! Yet …
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November 2nd, 2008
October 2008 Markets Review
Large Losses across All Markets
Panic Volatility & Selling
Key Points
- Year to Date Total Returns
S&P 500 (969) -33%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.96%) 0%
NASDAQ (1731) -35%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -43%
- 2008 US GDP expected growth = 0.6%
- 2008 earnings decline expected = -8.5%
- Negative 2008 portfolio returns
Executive Summary
Equity markets imploded (S&P 500 -17%) in October.
All markets suffered a lack of confidence. Volatility
exploded and risk premiums increased ……
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October 18th, 2008
Wealth Guide Section II Nature of Risk
Chapter 2 Uncertainties, Choices, & Catalysts
The word “risk” derives from the early Italian
“risicare”, which means to “dare”.
… The actions we dare to take, which depends
on how free we are to make choices, are
what the story of risk is all about.
-Peter Bernstein Against The Gods
Key Points
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October 1st, 2008
Third Quarter 2008 Markets Review
Chaotic Credit Markets
A September To Remember
Key Points
- Year To Date 2008 Total Returns
S&P 500 (1164) -19%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.84%) +2%
NASDAQ (2082) -22%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -27%
- 2008 US GDP expected growth = 1%
- 2008 earnings expected decline =-4%
- Negative 2008 portfolio returns
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October 1st, 2008
Linked Lifetime Wealth Guide
A Resource for Managing Personal Financial Risks
rough draft Table of Contents and Chapter 1 Intro to
Wealth Flow Concepts are provided as continual education.
Link to Table of Contents
Link to rough draft Chapter 1
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August 31st, 2008
August Month End 2008 Markets Review
Market Churns; Long Shallow Recession
Key Points
- Year to Date 2008 Total Returns
S&P 500 (1282) -11%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.85%) +3%
NASDAQ (2367) -11%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -19%
- 2008 US GDP expected growth = 1%
- No 2008 earnings growth expected
- Negative 2008 portfolio returns likely
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August 16th, 2008
Wealth Distribution
Part 2 : Specific Issues
Why Simulate and Focus on Withdrawals?
Key Points:
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August 8th, 2008
Wealth Distribution
Part 1
Selecting Your General Approach
Key Points
- Time horizon overshadows other factors
- Risk tolerance changes and adjustment
capacity critical for robust spend plan
- Part 2 - specific issues analysis will follow
in the next BWM Letter
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